This is because JP candidates are expected to face formidable challenges from "AL independents" in at least 14 of those constituencies. According to insiders from the JP, the party has forged an understanding with the AL to secure victories for its senior and popular leaders in the January 7 polls.
However, doubts persist among JP leadership about the number of seats they can secure, given the party's limited organizational structure and public support across the country, primarily concentrated in a few districts within the Rangpur division.
The JP's attempt to persuade the AL to withdraw its independents from the "shared seats" was unsuccessful, as the ruling party believes that the presence of independents will enhance voter turnout and contribute to a more participatory election.
The JP has put forward 265 candidates, but party sources suggest that it's unlikely for their candidates to win any seats beyond the 26 allocated by the AL. However, JP nominees in 10 "shared seats" are said to be in a slightly favorable position compared to their rivals.
The party holds hope that its candidates may secure victories in some seats in the Rangpur division, including Gaibandha-1, where the current JP MP Shameem Haider Patwari is contesting.
While the JP participated in the 2008 national election as a partner of the AL-led grand alliance, running in 49 constituencies and winning 27 where the AL withdrew its candidates, it faced challenges in the remaining 22 constituencies.
In the 2014 parliamentary polls, the JP won 29 seats where the AL did not field candidates, following a consensus over seat-sharing. In the 2018 polls, the AL left 26 seats for the JP, resulting in the latter's victory in 22 constituencies. However, the JP is less optimistic about similar easy wins this time, anticipating challenges from both independents and JP rival candidates in certain constituencies like Brahmanbaria-2, Nilphamari-3, and Pirojpur-3.
The JP leadership is aware of tough competitions in various constituencies, such as Brahmanbaria-2, Nilphamari-3, Pirojpur-3, Dhaka-18, Rangpur-1, Satkhira-2, and Feni-3. Despite these challenges, some constituencies are considered JP strongholds, including Thakurgaon-3, Rangpur-3, Kurigram-1 and -2, Patuakhali-1, Kishoreganj-3, and Narayanganj-5.
